In Japan, the dream of buying a home is moving a little farther away again. The Bank of Japan ended negative interest rates in March 2024, raised its policy rate to around 0.5% in January 2025, and then to around 0.75% in December 2025. On March 19, 2026, it kept that rate at about 0.75%. In that March statement, the BOJ also said that housing investment was on a declining trend. (boj.or.jp)

Banks are already passing higher rates on to borrowers. Mitsubishi UFJ Bank’s home loan rate for new borrowers in April 2026 is 0.945% for a variable loan and 2.97% for a 10-year fixed loan. The government-backed Flat 35 program shows a higher starting point for long fixed loans: in April 2026, the most common rate for 21- to 35-year loans with a loan-to-value ratio of 90% or less is 2.49%. For many families, this means a hard choice: take a cheaper variable loan and accept future risk, or choose a safer fixed loan and pay more from the start. (bk.mufg.jp)

This change can be felt in real money. Mizuho says some borrowers who had a variable mortgage at 0.775% will move to 1.025% from the July 2026 payment period, depending on their contract. In a simple 35-year example, a ¥35 million loan would rise from about ¥95,200 a month at 0.775% to about ¥99,200 at 1.025%—around ¥4,000 more every month. That may not sound dramatic, but over many years it can put real pressure on a household budget. (mizuhobank.co.jp)

People are reacting. In a January 2026 survey by the Japan Housing Finance Agency, 62.0% of people planning to buy a home said they expected mortgage rates to rise over the next year, and 30.9% preferred a full-term fixed loan, up 4.6 points from April 2024. But among people who actually bought a home between April and September 2025, variable loans were still the most common choice at 75.0%. In other words, many buyers know the risk is growing, but they still need the lowest monthly payment they can get. That is why the idea of “my home” still feels possible in Japan—just more distant than before. (jhf.go.jp)