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「セミリキッド」が名ばかりになるとき:2026年、プライベートクレジットの出口に殺到する投資家たち

When “Semi-Liquid” Isn’t: Private Credit’s Exit Door Gets Crowded in 2026

2兆ドル超に膨らんだプライベートクレジット市場で、2026年初頭に相次いだ流動性制限の動き。「セミリキッド」の約束はなぜ揺らぎ始めたのか。
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For years, private credit has been marketed as a calm middle ground: higher yields than public bonds, but enough periodic liquidity to reassure investors. In early 2026, that promise began to look more fragile. On February 18, Blue Owl Capital Corp II said it would replace quarterly tender offers with return-of-capital distributions and outlined a broader $1.4 billion package of loan sales across three Blue Owl BDCs; Reuters reported that the move shook investors precisely because it looked like a retreat from ordinary cash access. (sec.gov)

The next warning came on March 6. HPS Corporate Lending Fund, or HLEND, disclosed that first-quarter repurchase requests had reached about 9.3% of shares outstanding, above its recurring 5% quarterly framework for the first time since inception, so it would honor only the 5% level—about $620 million. What makes this episode striking is that the fund’s own offering materials had always said the investment was illiquid, that a secondary market was unlikely, and that repurchases were limited and not guaranteed. In other words, the “shock” was not the rule itself, but the moment investors were forced to notice it. (hlend.com)

Blackstone’s BCRED delivered a subtler version of the same message. In March 2026, its board increased the quarter’s repurchase offer from the usual 5% to 7%, and Blackstone plus its employees added about $400 million through a feeder fund so that 100% of requests could be met. That sounds reassuring, yet it also reveals something important: liquidity did not appear automatically from the underlying loans. It had to be manufactured through fund structure, sponsor support, and careful timing. (sec.gov)

This matters because private credit is no niche corner of finance anymore. The IMF says the market topped $2.1 trillion globally in 2023, while the OECD notes that once semi-liquid and open-ended structures are included, the market is still around that scale and has grown rapidly as banks pulled back after the 2008 crisis. The IMF also warns that private loans rarely trade and are often valued only quarterly using models rather than market prices. So the old liquidity story is now harder to believe. The real lesson is simple but uncomfortable: “semi-liquid” does not mean liquid. It means investors may have an exit door—but not necessarily when everyone reaches for the handle at once. (imf.org)

by EigoBoxAI
作成:2026/03/26 21:04
レベル:上級 (語彙目安:6000〜8000語)

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